The UK advertising recovery is getting brighter than expected, if Dentsu's latest Global Ad Spend Forecasts are anything to go by.

The agency group is now forecasting 2022 UK advertising spend to grow 6.8% to $43.2 billion.

That is an upward revision from its January 2022 forecast, which was for 5.4% growth.

And it would exceed the 5% growth seen in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year.

Growth ahead

The forecast includes channel-specific predictions:

  • UK digital ad spend, which makes up two thirds of the total, to grow at 6.3%, faster than the previously-forecast 5.7%.
  • Total TV spend forecast to grow faster, at 6%.
  • Out-of-home (37.7% growth) and cinema (48.8% growth) to see strong bounce-back from 2020 and 2021 declines.

Dentsu's team also expects total UK ad revenue to grow in 2023 (5.9%) and 2024 (5.7%).

Forecast factors

Dentsu's July report is a planned "reforecast", the second part of its twice-yearly annual forecast.

It says the adjustments account for a range of factors:

  • escalating media price inflation.
  • geopolitical tension.
  • upcoming key elections.
  • FIFA World Cup.
  • Removal of Russian investment from the forecast.

Peter Huijboom, Global CEO, Media and Global Clients at Dentsu International, said:

"Even with everything which has happened in recent months, not least the protracted war in Ukraine and its international repercussions, the advertising recovery remains strong on a global scale.

"Despite global economic uncertainty, brands are continuing to prioritise their spend in channels which will give them both the digital-flexibility and return they seek."

Diving deeper

Different media channels are set to show different rates of growth or decline.

Globally, across 60 countries, Dentsu expects advertising spend growth of 8.7% - a small downward revision of 0.4%.

The technology sector is expected to be the fastest-growing ad spender in 2022 (+11.3%).

Retail is forecast to spend 11% more, as ecommerce grows, new players arrive and emerging retail platforms are switched-on.